Australia has almost returned to its 2019 international visitor peak, with travellers spending more, staying longer and generating greater value for the hotel sector than before the pandemic.
International arrivals are now at 98 per cent of pre-pandemic levels and new CBRE research forecasts the hotel sector is set to enter a new growth phase where Australia could increase share of global travel.
Modelling by the commercial real estate services and investments provider suggests national hotel occupancy will rise to 80 per cent and revenue per available room (RevPAR) to $225 by 2030.
This is a 24 per cent increase on current performance, with gateway markets such as Sydney most likely to benefit.
The Beyond Recovery report outlines how Australia's distinctive tourism offering, strong global reputation, continued investment in tourism infrastructure and a major events pipeline are providing a solid platform for future demand growth.
This growth is expected to occur against a structurally constrained hotel supply pipeline increasing the likelihood that additional demand will translate into stronger performance gains.
CBRE Head of Hotel Research Ally Gibson said: “While Australia will always compete as a premium long-haul destination, there remains real capacity to increase international visitation over time.
“For hotel owners and operators, the opportunity is not whether demand will grow, but by how much. If Australia can modestly increase international visitation while maintaining today’s higher-value visitor profile, the upside for hotel performance is significant.”
For Australia's hotel sector, international visitors remain one of the highest-value demand segments. The report found average visitor expenditure increased by 31 per cent from $5195 in the year ending March 2019 to $6795 in the year ending March 2026.
Average hotel stays also lengthened from 6.7 nights to 8.6 nights, increasing the value of each international arrival.
CBRE Regional Director of Valuations, Hotels, Troy Craig said: “Australia’s hotel sector has delivered record performance despite the slower recovery in international visitation with domestic travellers accounting for 70 per cent of hotel room nights.
"This domestic driven strength provides insulation from changing global travel conditions, while further growth in international visitation represents a significant source of additional demand.”
The report also considers the role of major events, aviation connectivity, and constrained hotel supply in shaping the next phase of demand growth.
According to CBRE, major events continue to elevate Australia’s global profile while generating measurable hotel demand.
CBRE’s Needle Movers report found that 15 major sporting, cultural and business events across Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane generated an average of 40,000 additional hotel room nights and $25 million in incremental hotel revenue per event.
Looking ahead, the 2027 Rugby World Cup will bring teams and fans from across the globe to Australian cities, providing a significant near-term boost to international visitation and hotel demand.
View the full Beyond Recovery report here.
