Tourism Research Australia (TRA) has released its 2025 to 2030 forecast, and the outlook for the next five years is positive.

The Tourism forecasts for Australia 2025 to 2030 report features highlights including:

  • 22 per cent growth in international visitor spend between 2025 and 2030
  • China, Hong Kong and India tipped to show strongest growth
  • Aussies set to take 313 million day trips in 2030 - or 11 day trips per person annually
  • Domestic day-trip market set to grow in value from $46 billion in 2025 to $57 billion in 2030.

Total visitor spend in Australia is forecast to continue rising from a record high of $180.6 billion in 2024.

It is forecast to reach $191.6 billion in 2025. This represents an increase of six per cent from the previous year.

While domestic overnight spend accounts for the largest share of total visitor spend in Australia, domestic day trip spend and international visitor spend are forecast to provide the strongest contributions to growth in 2025.

Over the next five years, total visitor spend in Australia is forecast to trend higher at an average annual rate of four per cent. In 2030, total visitor spend is projected to reach around $233 billion.

Total short-term international visitor spend in Australia is forecast to jump from the already record high of $32.9 billion in 2024 to $37.7 billion in 2025 (growth of 15 per cent or $4.8 billion).

International spend in Australia is then expected to continue rising, albeit at a slower pace, to reach $46 billion in 2030 (annual average growth of four per cent over the forecast period).

The slower pace of growth in international spend in the future years aligns with moderating inflation and tapering growth in international visitor arrivals. It also reflects a decline in average trip spend for some markets and travel types as travellers continue to seek out value-for-money.

Spend on domestic overnight trips is forecast to fall by 0.9 per cent to $107.8 billion in 2025 as Australians opt for shorter trips and day trips. Much stronger growth is expected for spend on day trips – up by 18 per cent to $46 billion in 2025.

By 2030, domestic spend is forecast to reach $187.4 billion, with an average annual growth rate of four per cent across the forecast period. This suggests that domestic tourism spend growth will outpace expected inflation over that period.

Top international markets

China is expected to be the fastest growing market over the full period to 2030, while Hong Kong, India, the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia also show strong growth prospects.

Over the full forecast period, New Zealand is forecast to remain Australia’s largest source of inbound travellers.

China is forecast to remain Australia’s second largest source of inbound travellers through to 2030.

The United States and United Kingdom are forecast to remain Australia’s third and fourth largest inbound markets. These two markets also bring a large share of high average spend travellers, making them valuable markets for Australia.

Growth over the next five years is predicted to be driven by:

  • Continued gradual increases to aviation capacity, including from key emerging and growth markets, and the commencement of flights into Western Sydney’s new international airport
  • Growth in inbound demand from a range of source markets, including those that have been slower to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions to travel. This includes arrivals from China, which is an important source market for Australia
  • Close and growing ties between Australia and several high-growth markets in our region
  • Multiple major international sporting events that are confirmed to be held in Australia which will attract international travellers to Australia
  • Australia’s enduring reputation as a safe, clean, friendly, and aspirational travel destination
  • Promotional work to grow markets and attract visitors to Australia
  • Australia’s positive reputation as a destination that attracts business, employment, and education arrivals
  • The important role travel plays in connecting people, supporting business, encouraging investment, strengthening family bonds, and improving mental health and wellbeing, which is supporting decisions to prioritise travel.

The domestic outlook for NSW

Modest growth in domestic overnight trips in NSW is expected from 2026, with increases of 1.3 per cent and 1.6 per cent in the following two years.

Growth is forecast to peak at two per cent in 2028. Over the five-year forecast period, overnight trips are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.6 per cent, reaching 42.6 million by 2030.

Read the full report here.

Join a TRA webinar on Thursday 22 January 2026 exploring insights from the report. Register here.