International visitation to NSW continued an upward trajectory in the 2024–25 financial year with growth recorded in visitors, visitor nights and expenditure.
Visitor nights and expenditure surpassed pre-COVID-19 levels (up 3.8 per cent and 23.3 per cent respectively on the 2018–19 financial year), while total visitors remained 10.8 per cent below.
Asia remained the engine of growth.
China reemerged as NSW’s largest inbound market across visitors, nights and expenditure, with visitors up 24 per cent year on year.
However, visitation only reached 67 per cent of its pre-COVID-19 volumes, with China recording the second lowest recovery rate within NSW’s 16 key source markets.
Slower Chinese economic growth and a preference for short-haul travel within Northeast Asia contributed to the result.
Other Asian markets continued to grow. India (up 12 per cent) and South Korea (up seven per cent) exceeded their pre-COVID-19 levels by 11 per cent and 40 per cent respectively.
Countries that were slower to recover also saw an increase in their rate of recovery, including Malaysia (up 12 per cent), Hong Kong (up 11 per cent), Japan (up nine per cent) and Singapore (up seven per cent).
By contrast, long-haul western markets such as North America and Europe delivered flat or negative growth, constrained by higher airfares, extended travel times and increased competition from short-haul international or domestic travel options.
International aviation capacity into Sydney continued its steady recovery during the year.
New services such as Turkish Airlines to Istanbul and Juneyao Air to Shanghai, alongside increased aviation attraction funding, expanded NSW’s global reach and improved travel options for
international visitors.
While flights (up 0.7 per cent) and seats (up 0.8 per cent) grew modestly, international passenger arrivals rose more significantly to 7.16 million (up 6.9 per cent).
This growing alignment between available capacity and strengthening global demand reinforced Sydney’s role as Australia’s primary international gateway and supported broader growth in overseas visitation across NSW.
The outlook for inbound travel remains positive, but moderate, for the 2025–26 financial year, due to inflation, trade and other economic pressures.
Total arrivals to Australia are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of six per cent between 2024 and 2029, reaching 12 million trips.
China is projected to continue its recovery but remain below pre-COVID-19 levels through the end of 2029.
India, Vietnam and the Philippines are expected to be the fastest-growing top 15 source markets during the period.
This highlights the growing importance of diversifying source markets to sustain international growth.
Lastly, the economic environment in the key markets that inhibited international recovery began to ease in the 2024–25 financial year, supporting household disposable incomes and international travel demand.
The annual percentage change in CPI as of June 2025 moderated across some of the key markets: United Kingdom at 3.6 per cent, Japan at 3.2 per cent, the United States at 2.7 per cent, South Korea at 2.2 per cent and Eurozone at two per cent.
Interest rates for controlling inflations also started to fall during the period: the United States at 4.5 per cent, United Kingdom at 4.25 per cent, South Korea at 2.5 per cent, Eurozone at 2.15 per cent and Japan at 0.5 per cent.
Falling inflation and borrowing costs reduced pressure on consumers, creating more favourable conditions for outbound travel.